Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets +12 (110-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solomon Hill * | 32 | 4-10 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| David West * | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| C.J. Watson * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 18 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Rodney Stuckey * | 17 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | - |
| CJ Miles | 33 | 9-18 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 19 | - |
| Donald Sloan | 23 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Luis Scola | 22 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Damjan Rudez | 12 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 39 | 12-18 | 7-12 | 14-15 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 35 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 35 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 6-12 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 25 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 33 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 29 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 28 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Josh Smith | 26 | 3-11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Jason Terry | 18 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 17 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | - |
| Kostas Papanikolaou | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter