Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies -8 (95-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Chandler * | 39 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 39 | 9-18 | 3-7 | 4-7 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 35 | 5-14 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 32 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Rajon Rondo * | 26 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Devin Harris | 22 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Richard Jefferson | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Greg Smith | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Randolph * | 40 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 39 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 31 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 30 | 7-16 | 2-8 | 6-7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 10 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Jeff Green | 32 | 5-14 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Beno Udrih | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Nick Calathes | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Vince Carter | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Kosta Koufos | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Jordan Adams | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter