Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.7% | 86.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +43 (122-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 32 | 8-14 | 1-2 | 2-6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 26 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Jusuf Nurkić * | 23 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 23 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 20 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Jameer Nelson | 24 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Randy Foye | 20 | 1-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | - |
| Alonzo Gee | 19 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| JJ Hickson | 14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Gary Harris | 10 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Erick Green | 6 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry * | 25 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Klay Thompson * | 23 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Andrew Bogut * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Draymond Green * | 22 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 20 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Shaun Livingston | 22 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| David Lee | 19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Andre Iguodala | 17 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa | 16 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Justin Holiday | 14 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Marreese Speights | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | - |
| James Michael McAdoo | 12 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Brandon Rush | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
* = starter