Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.2% | 22.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -4 (111-115). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Beverley * | 46 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 23 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 45 | 4-15 | 3-11 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | - |
| James Harden * | 44 | 11-21 | 1-7 | 18-21 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 41 | 32 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 42 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 10-15 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 41 | 7-13 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Tarik Black | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Nick Johnson | 17 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Isaiah Canaan | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Joey Dorsey | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 46 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 34 | 8-17 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 33 | 7-17 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 5 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 32 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 28 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari | 26 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| JJ Hickson | 20 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Jusuf Nurkić | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Nate Robinson | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alonzo Gee | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter