Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -1 (116-117). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Lee * | 52 | 6-13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 48 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 25 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 46 | 10-16 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 20 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 46 | 5-19 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Quincy Pondexter * | 23 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Vince Carter | 41 | 6-13 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Kosta Koufos | 16 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Beno Udrih | 16 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jon Leuer | 14 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Nick Calathes | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Green * | 51 | 9-17 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 24 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 47 | 9-22 | 0-0 | 5-15 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 23 | - |
| Cory Joseph * | 37 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Kyle Anderson * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Marco Belinelli | 43 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 41 | 7-20 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 39 | 5-15 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 18 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 24 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Austin Daye | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter