Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.0% | 23.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.4% | 12.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 68.1% | 31.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.2% | 17.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.3% | 17.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -11 (106-117). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 35 | 11-20 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 13 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 35 | 10-17 | 4-6 | 8-9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 24 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 31 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 20 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 25 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Devin Harris | 21 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 19 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 13 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Richard Jefferson | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Drummond * | 41 | 9-16 | 0-1 | 1-6 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 33 | - |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 28 | 5-15 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 24 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Kyle Singler * | 20 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Caron Butler | 28 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| D.J. Augustin | 24 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Greg Monroe | 21 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Jodie Meeks | 19 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Jonas Jerebko | 13 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
* = starter