Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Brooklyn Nets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Brooklyn Nets -4 (91-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luol Deng * | 40 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 6-8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 12-24 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 12 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 30 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Justin Hamilton * | 16 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Mario Chalmers | 31 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 20 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Shawne Williams | 18 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Shabazz Napier | 18 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| James Ennis III | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Brooklyn Nets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deron Williams * | 38 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 6-7 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 37 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Mason Plumlee * | 32 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 17 | - |
| Sergey Karasev * | 22 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Jarrett Jack | 28 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Alan Anderson | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | 15 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Mirza Teletovic | 11 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Cory Jefferson | 10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Jerome Jordan | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Darius Morris | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter