Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Portland Trail Blazers +13 (108-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph * | 37 | 5-10 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 35 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Aron Baynes * | 32 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 32 | 7-18 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Danny Green * | 30 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Marco Belinelli | 22 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Kyle Anderson | 20 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Jeff Ayres | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Austin Daye | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Matthews * | 35 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Nicolas Batum * | 34 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| LaMarcus Aldridge * | 33 | 10-21 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | - |
| Damian Lillard * | 33 | 8-18 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Robin Lopez * | 19 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Chris Kaman | 19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Steve Blake | 18 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Joel Freeland | 14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Allen Crabbe | 13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Will Barton | 8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Thomas Robinson | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Meyers Leonard | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter