Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +13 (95-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Oladipo * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Channing Frye * | 35 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 35 | 8-15 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Nikola Vučević * | 34 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Evan Fournier * | 30 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Ben Gordon | 22 | 7-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Elfrid Payton | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Maurice Harkless | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 6-12 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Landry Fields * | 22 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Terrence Ross * | 21 | 3-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 19 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Lou Williams | 28 | 6-14 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Patrick Patterson | 28 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 25 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| James Johnson | 21 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Greivis Vasquez | 19 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | - |
* = starter