Model Predictions
| Model | Chicago Bulls | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -18 (75-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Gibson * | 38 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 36 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 9-10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 20 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 29 | 8-11 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 18 | - |
| Derrick Rose * | 27 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Kirk Hinrich | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Nikola Mirotic | 20 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Aaron Brooks | 16 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Tony Snell | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nazr Mohammed | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Cameron Bairstow | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris Cole * | 39 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Luol Deng * | 33 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Justin Hamilton * | 33 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 27 | 7-18 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Shawne Williams | 28 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mario Chalmers | 28 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Danny Granger | 19 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| James Ennis III | 7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter