Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets +12 (108-96). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 39 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 20 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 37 | 4-17 | 1-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 31 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| JJ Hickson * | 22 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 19 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 24 | 7-14 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Kenneth Faried | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Jusuf Nurkić | 18 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Gary Harris | 13 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Erick Green | 10 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Alonzo Gee | 9 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Ariza * | 41 | 4-14 | 3-11 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| James Harden * | 37 | 7-20 | 2-5 | 8-9 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 24 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 34 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 32 | 11-19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 29 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 8-17 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 32 | - |
| Jason Terry | 25 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -2 | - |
| Joey Dorsey | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - |
| Nick Johnson | 14 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Tarik Black | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Troy Daniels | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter