Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -7 (98-105). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klay Thompson * | 41 | 10-21 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Draymond Green * | 37 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 8-10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 22 | - |
| Stephen Curry * | 37 | 9-22 | 3-11 | 8-9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 19 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 33 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Festus Ezeli * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Andre Iguodala | 29 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Shaun Livingston | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Marreese Speights | 18 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Brandon Rush | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ognjen Kuzmic | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Jefferson * | 34 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 1-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 34 | 8-22 | 2-8 | 6-7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 8 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 32 | 11-20 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 30 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 21 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Devin Harris | 21 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 16 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | 7 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter