Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.3% | 58.7% | +1.9 | ✓ (7.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +9 (72-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Hood * | 39 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 3-5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Jabari Parker * | 34 | 9-24 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Amile Jefferson * | 30 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Rasheed Sulaimon * | 23 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Tyler Thornton * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Quinn Cook | 30 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Marshall Plumlee | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 7 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Matt Jones | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Hairston | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Harris * | 37 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 36 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 6 | - |
| A. Mitchell * | 34 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 21 | - |
| M. Brogdon * | 33 | 7-17 | 2-5 | 7-10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 9 | - |
| M. Tobey * | 18 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| A. Gill | 26 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 10-17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| J. Anderson | 15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Atkins | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter