Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.0% | 93.0% | +14.2 | ✓ (3.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.6% | 94.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.3% | 94.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +11 (59-48). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Walla | 32 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | - |
| K. Martin | 29 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -4 | - |
| A. Anderson | 28 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | - |
| E. Peoples | 28 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | - |
| A. Ezeh | 25 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| M. Braeuer | 19 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. Baugus | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| K. Mays | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| C. Moyer | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Qedan | 36 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | - |
| C. Wyatt | 26 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 19 | - |
| J. Morrill | 26 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| J. Hunt | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| J. Flanery | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter