Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Sparks | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +7 (76-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armintie Herrington * | 33 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jantel Lavender * | 32 | 9-20 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 14 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Kristi Toliver * | 10 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Lindsey Harding | 32 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Farhiya Abdi | 25 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Sandrine Gruda | 23 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Nikki Greene | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 23 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 22 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 20 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 17 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 22 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 21 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Ewelina Kobryn | 17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Anete Jekabsone-Zogota | 16 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Shay Murphy | 15 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Tiffany Bias | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter