Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Los Angeles Sparks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.8% | 23.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.7% | 27.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.7% | 27.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Sparks -20 (73-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 35 | 7-9 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 23 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 32 | 5-17 | 2-10 | 6-8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 30 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 22 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 30 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 21 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 22 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Shay Murphy | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 13 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Ewelina Kobryn | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tiffany Bias | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candace Parker * | 37 | 5-17 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Kristi Toliver * | 33 | 1-12 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -4 | - |
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 31 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Jantel Lavender * | 27 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 21 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Candice Wiggins | 19 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Armintie Herrington | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Lindsey Harding | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Sandrine Gruda | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter