Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +29 (90-61). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle Robinson * | 28 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Danielle Adams * | 22 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Kayla McBride * | 21 | 1-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Jayne Appel Marinelli * | 21 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Becky Hammon * | 20 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Shenise Johnson | 26 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Sophia Young-Malcolm | 21 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Shameka Christon | 17 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Kayla Alexander | 13 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Heather Butler | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candice Dupree * | 26 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 23 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 22 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 21 | 5-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -1 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 20 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 19 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Ewelina Kobryn | 17 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Anete Jekabsone-Zogota | 16 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Shay Murphy | 13 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Tiffany Bias | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter