Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Dallas Wings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.3% | 41.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Wings -3 (77-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 34 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 21 | 25 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 33 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 31 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 26 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 10-10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 19 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Anete Jekabsone-Zogota | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Shay Murphy | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odyssey Sims * | 33 | 4-13 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith * | 33 | 2-17 | 0-6 | 12-13 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Glory Johnson * | 30 | 5-15 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Roneeka Hodges * | 28 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Courtney Paris * | 24 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jordan Hooper | 17 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Vicki Baugh | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy | 9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Angel Goodrich | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Theresa Plaisance | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter