Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.5% | 28.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.8% | 49.2% | -0.2 | ✗ (8.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 80.7% | 19.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.2% | 15.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.2% | 15.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +8 (74-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasheed Sulaimon * | 35 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Jabari Parker * | 33 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Rodney Hood * | 30 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 | - |
| Amile Jefferson * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Tyler Thornton * | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Quinn Cook | 33 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Marshall Plumlee | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 10 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Paige * | 37 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 35 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | - |
| J. McAdoo * | 33 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Leslie McDonald * | 32 | 9-12 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Brice Johnson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Nate Britt | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Desmond Hubert | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Joel James | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jackson Simmons | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter