Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.4% | 74.6% | +5.9 | ✓ (6.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +12 (93-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Paige * | 37 | 9-14 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 14 | - |
| Leslie McDonald * | 30 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 26 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| J. McAdoo * | 24 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brice Johnson | 27 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Nate Britt | 23 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Desmond Hubert | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jackson Simmons | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Joel James | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Parker * | 35 | 10-17 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 26 | - |
| Rodney Hood * | 33 | 8-13 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 12 | - |
| Tyler Thornton * | 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Andre Dawkins * | 20 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Josh Hairston * | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Quinn Cook | 27 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Amile Jefferson | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Rasheed Sulaimon | 20 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Marshall Plumlee | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Matt Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter