Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.1% | 85.9% | +9.9 | ✓ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 13.6% | 86.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +5 (73-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Hawkins * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Joel Wright * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 26 | - |
| Wesley Davis * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Emani Gant * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Reid Koenen * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Kavin Gilder-Tilbury | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Gordon Ball | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | - |
| Naiel Smith | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Corey Stern | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Victor Bermudez | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Townsel * | 38 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 25 | - |
| Kendrick Washington * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 20 | - |
| Rakeem Dickerson * | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Cameron Golden | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Kelvin Downs | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter