Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.0% | 27.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.0% | 29.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 81.3% | 18.7% | -8.1 | ✗ (14.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.2% | 17.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.5% | 17.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +6 (81-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Sibert * | 31 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 4-7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Devin Oliver * | 24 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Matt Kavanaugh * | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Khari Price * | 20 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Dyshawn Pierre * | 18 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Vee Sanford | 23 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Scoochie Smith | 20 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Devon Scott | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Kyle Davis | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Kendall Pollard | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Jalen Robinson | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daishon Knight * | 33 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 5-5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Bobby Hunter * | 29 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Paris Lee * | 24 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Nick Zeisloft * | 22 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| John Jones * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Zach Lofton | 25 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 6-9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Reggie Lynch | 17 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Kaza Keane | 14 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Tony Wills | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Jamaal Samuel | 8 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter