Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +6 (113-107). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gasol * | 33 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 33 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 26 | 1-10 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 25 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince * | 25 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| James Johnson | 22 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Nick Calathes | 21 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mike Miller | 19 | 7-9 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Tony Allen | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Kosta Koufos | 15 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 42 | 12-24 | 3-8 | 10-10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 22 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 29 | 7-12 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 19 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 28 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Steven Adams * | 25 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Reggie Jackson | 33 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Derek Fisher | 18 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Perry Jones III | 15 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Nick Collison | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Jeremy Lamb | 11 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | - |
* = starter