Model Predictions
| Model | New York Knicks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.4% | 90.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +26 (108-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
New York Knicks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony * | 35 | 11-20 | 3-8 | 4-6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 15 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 31 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 24 | - |
| Raymond Felton * | 30 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| JR Smith * | 28 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Pablo Prigioni * | 25 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 33 | 2-15 | 0-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -7 | - |
| Amar'e Stoudemire | 19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Shannon Brown | 15 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Jeremy Tyler | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Earl Clark | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Toure' Murry | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 36 | 13-19 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 19 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 35 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 27 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 20 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Norris Cole | 29 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Ray Allen | 19 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - |
| Michael Beasley | 10 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Greg Oden | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Toney Douglas | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter