Model Predictions
| Model | New Orleans Pelicans | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.9% | 82.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +19 (108-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Gordon * | 34 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Brian Roberts * | 29 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Greg Stiemsma * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Anthony Davis * | 12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Tyreke Evans | 27 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Alexis Ajinca | 25 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Luke Babbitt | 25 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 18 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | - |
| Austin Rivers | 16 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 1-6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Darius Miller | 10 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Jeff Withey | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 33 | 8-18 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 18 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 27 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Jose Calderon * | 26 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Samuel Dalembert * | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 23 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 19 | - |
| Devin Harris | 22 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Vince Carter | 21 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 21 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| DeJuan Blair | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Shane Larkin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Bernard James | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter