Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Trail Blazers | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -5 (95-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Lopez * | 38 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 20 | - |
| Nicolas Batum * | 38 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 20 | - |
| Damian Lillard * | 37 | 8-21 | 4-11 | 11-13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 25 | - |
| Wesley Matthews * | 33 | 2-13 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 27 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Mo Williams | 25 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Thomas Robinson | 14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Victor Claver | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Will Barton | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | - |
| CJ McCollum | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Foye * | 41 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Aaron Brooks * | 29 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 25 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 21 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Evan Fournier | 30 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| JJ Hickson | 29 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 24 | - |
| Quincy Miller | 23 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jan Vesely | 11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
* = starter