Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.3% | 17.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 83.9% | 16.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.9% | 20.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.9% | 20.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -11 (77-88). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 13-20 | 0-2 | 4-7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 24 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 36 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 22 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 19 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Ray Allen | 29 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Shane Battier | 23 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Norris Cole | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 8 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 40 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 39 | 10-20 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 31 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 27 | 3-13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 22 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | - |
| JJ Redick | 27 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 27 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| John Henson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ish Smith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Gustavo Ayon | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter