Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -9 (94-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson * | 44 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Kevin Durant * | 43 | 11-23 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 26 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 24 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Kevin Martin | 39 | 7-13 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Derek Fisher | 26 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Nick Collison | 21 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - |
| DeAndre Liggins | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Parsons * | 46 | 8-14 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 16 | - |
| James Harden * | 43 | 7-22 | 4-10 | 8-11 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 17 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 40 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 7-12 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 | - |
| Francisco Garcia * | 36 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Jeremy Lin | 13 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Aaron Brooks | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| James Anderson | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Greg Smith | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter