Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -3 (101-104). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 47 | 13-30 | 4-9 | 11-13 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 28 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 42 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 31 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Reggie Jackson * | 24 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Kevin Martin | 30 | 3-11 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Derek Fisher | 24 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Nick Collison | 16 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| DeAndre Liggins | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 43 | 9-22 | 2-8 | 10-15 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 24 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 43 | 8-12 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 30 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 22 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 18 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Francisco Garcia | 32 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Carlos Delfino | 22 | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Terrence Jones | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Aaron Brooks | 9 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter