Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.8% | 93.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +23 (110-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 38 | 10-19 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 32 | 8-20 | 4-10 | 6-7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 7 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 29 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 27 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 18 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| John Henson | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| JJ Redick | 16 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Marquis Daniels | 11 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Ish Smith | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Gustavo Ayon | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 34 | 9-11 | 1-2 | 8-11 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 29 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 32 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 27 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 22 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Norris Cole | 28 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Ray Allen | 28 | 6-13 | 2-8 | 6-6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Shane Battier | 24 | 1-8 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 16 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter