Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Dallas Wings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Wings -3 (86-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 38 | 8-18 | 2-7 | 10-10 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 20 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 33 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 27 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Briana Butler * | 22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 24 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 17 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Cambage * | 29 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 5-9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 19 | - |
| Tiffany Jackson * | 28 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Angel Goodrich * | 25 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Candice Wiggins * | 20 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Nicole Powell * | 19 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Riquna Williams | 24 | 7-20 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 6 | - |
| Glory Johnson | 20 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith | 19 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Roneeka Hodges | 9 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Courtney Paris | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter