Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | New York Liberty | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New York Liberty -22 (66-88). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles * | 31 | 10-22 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Allison Hightower * | 31 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Renee Montgomery * | 28 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin * | 25 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Tan White | 25 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Kelly Faris | 13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Kayla Pedersen | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
New York Liberty
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cappie Pondexter * | 34 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 30 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 4 | - |
| Katie Smith * | 29 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Kara Braxton * | 22 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Kamiko Williams * | 18 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Alex Montgomery | 21 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Kelsey Bone | 19 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Toni Young | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter