Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Minnesota Lynx | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Lynx +32 (91-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candice Dupree * | 29 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 27 | 3-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -4 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 24 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 23 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Briana Butler * | 21 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Charde Houston | 20 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | -2 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Penny Taylor | 11 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya Moore * | 32 | 8-17 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 15 | - |
| Rebekkah Brunson * | 26 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Janel McCarville * | 26 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Seimone Augustus * | 11 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Monica Wright | 28 | 6-12 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Devereaux Peters | 23 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 16 | - |
| Sugar Rodgers | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Rachel Jarry | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Amber Harris | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Lindsey Moore | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter