Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | New York Liberty | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.0% | 35.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New York Liberty +10 (78-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kara Lawson * | 35 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Allison Hightower * | 34 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 28 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin * | 25 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 25 | 3-17 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Kelly Faris | 16 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Ashley Walker | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
New York Liberty
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cappie Pondexter * | 36 | 8-22 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Katie Smith * | 28 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Kara Braxton * | 23 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 17 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Kamiko Williams * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell | 25 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 25 | - |
| Alex Montgomery | 24 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Kelsey Bone | 18 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Toni Young | 10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter