Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +8 (76-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renee Montgomery * | 31 | 4-14 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Tan White * | 31 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 28 | 7-23 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin * | 27 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques | 22 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Sydney Carter | 12 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Kayla Pedersen | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 38 | 2-7 | 0-5 | 6-7 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 35 | 9-18 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 13 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 31 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 28 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Briana Butler * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Charde Houston | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Jasmine James | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter