Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Wings | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.6% | 69.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +21 (77-56). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Goodrich * | 36 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Nicole Powell * | 31 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Tiffany Jackson * | 27 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Liz Cambage * | 23 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 13-14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Candice Wiggins * | 19 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith | 23 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 6-7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Roneeka Hodges | 16 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Courtney Paris | 15 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 34 | 7-16 | 0-4 | 6-8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 33 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 15 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 32 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Briana Butler * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Charde Houston | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Jasmine James | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter