Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Las Vegas Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Las Vegas Aces -6 (77-83). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candice Dupree * | 37 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 13 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 33 | 5-12 | 2-8 | 6-7 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 27 | 11-19 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 17 | - |
| Briana Butler * | 26 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Charde Houston | 19 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 11 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle Robinson * | 37 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 17 | - |
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 32 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Jia Perkins * | 32 | 5-16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Shameka Christon * | 29 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Danielle Adams * | 27 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Shenise Johnson | 24 | 4-15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -1 | - |
| Kayla Alexander | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Davellyn Whyte | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter