Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +4 (99-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 45 | 8-25 | 4-13 | 10-12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 11 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 44 | 10-18 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 43 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Greg Smith * | 41 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 34 | 4-14 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Carlos Delfino * | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Terrence Jones * | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Francisco Garcia * | 8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Blake * | 47 | 6-20 | 4-12 | 8-8 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 17 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 46 | 6-15 | 0-1 | 4-10 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 24 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 43 | 7-17 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 30 | - |
| Jodie Meeks * | 36 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Antawn Jamison * | 32 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 23 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Darius Morris * | 15 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Earl Clark * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Andrew Goudelock * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter