Model Predictions
| Model | New Orleans Pelicans | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +12 (99-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Roberts * | 42 | 5-17 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | - |
| Ryan Anderson * | 36 | 4-13 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Eric Gordon * | 34 | 4-17 | 0-2 | 8-9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu * | 33 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 20 | - |
| Robin Lopez * | 32 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Lou Amundson * | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Xavier Henry * | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 9 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Darius Miller * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Terrel Harris | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 30 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 28 | 10-15 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 19 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 28 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 26 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 20 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Mike James * | 17 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Bernard James | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Josh Akognon | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter