Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1.8% | 98.2% | - | โ |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.3% | 94.7% | - | โ |
| Margin | 3.8% | 96.2% | +17.8 | โ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | โ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.5% | 93.5% | - | โ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.4% | 93.6% | - | โ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.1% | 82.9% | - | โ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (105-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harkless * | 42 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | -4 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 38 | 7-16 | 0-3 | 5-11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 36 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Nikola Vuฤeviฤ * | 36 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 19 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore * | 30 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Doron Lamb * | 27 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn * | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Andrew Nicholson | 10 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| DeQuan Jones | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris Cole * | 41 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 30 | 7-10 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 20 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 25 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 25 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 23 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 21 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 19 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 17 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| James Jones | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Jarvis Varnado | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter