Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.7% | 37.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.9% | 30.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -6 (97-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerryd Bayless * | 28 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Ed Davis * | 27 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 24 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | - |
| Quincy Pondexter * | 24 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Keyon Dooling * | 24 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 23 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince * | 21 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 19 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Darrell Arthur * | 13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Austin Daye | 15 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Jon Leuer | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 34 | 8-18 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 12 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 32 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 29 | 8-11 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 20 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 28 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Mike James * | 26 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Elton Brand | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter