Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 88.1% | 11.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 90.6% | 9.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 69.3% | 30.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.9% | 15.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.9% | 15.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers -1 (95-96). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris Cole * | 42 | 6-12 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 22 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 32 | 5-13 | 3-7 | 6-9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 31 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | - |
| James Jones * | 28 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 28 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 25 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 19 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 16 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Jarvis Varnado * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving * | 36 | 7-19 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Tristan Thompson * | 36 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Shaun Livingston * | 30 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Alonzo Gee * | 26 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Dion Waiters * | 26 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Wayne Ellington * | 21 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 20 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Marreese Speights * | 17 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Kevin Jones * | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Omri Casspi * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter