Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.7% | 28.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +5 (91-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Green * | 36 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 33 | 11-22 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 33 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 29 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 28 | 1-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 27 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 22 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Nando De Colo * | 8 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| DeJuan Blair | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau Gasol * | 39 | 3-17 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 36 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 8-17 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 30 | - |
| Jodie Meeks * | 36 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Steve Blake * | 35 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 28 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Darius Morris * | 20 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Antawn Jamison * | 19 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Earl Clark * | 19 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Chris Duhon * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter