Model Predictions
| Model | Chicago Bulls | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.3% | 89.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (105-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Boozer * | 38 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 23 | - |
| Luol Deng * | 35 | 8-18 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 4 | - |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 35 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 8-9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Nate Robinson * | 32 | 5-16 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Kirk Hinrich * | 32 | 3-11 | 3-4 | 5-9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Marco Belinelli * | 29 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 27 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Nazr Mohammed * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Malcolm Thomas * | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 8-14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - |
| LeBron James * | 34 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 9-12 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 23 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 32 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 29 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 21 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 20 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 15 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 7-11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter