Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.7% | 28.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +3 (108-105). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 43 | 7-15 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Andre Miller * | 38 | 2-12 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Corey Brewer * | 37 | 6-20 | 2-9 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 4 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 34 | 8-15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 34 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - |
| JaVale McGee * | 27 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 19 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 19 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Evan Fournier * | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Randolph | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 42 | 7-13 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 40 | 9-17 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Mike James * | 34 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 33 | 9-19 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 25 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 7-14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 18 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 11 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter