Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.2% | 91.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +8 (109-101). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Green * | 36 | 10-17 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Jordan Crawford * | 35 | 7-15 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Avery Bradley * | 34 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 32 | 8-16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 27 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Terrence Williams * | 17 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Shavlik Randolph * | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Chris Wilcox | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| DJ White | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 31 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| LeBron James * | 28 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 24 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 24 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 24 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 24 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 21 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter