Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +5 (109-104). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 44 | 9-23 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 30 | - |
| JJ Redick * | 30 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -3 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 27 | 9-15 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 19 | - |
| John Henson * | 25 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 24 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh * | 24 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Ish Smith * | 21 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 16 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford * | 43 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 22 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 40 | 10-15 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 18 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 37 | 11-17 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 22 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 33 | 5-19 | 3-10 | 6-7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Ivan Johnson * | 25 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Kyle Korver * | 24 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| John Jenkins * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Shelvin Mack | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter