Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +10 (96-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 29 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 26 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Cory Joseph * | 26 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Danny Green * | 24 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 24 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 23 | 6-15 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 22 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Nando De Colo * | 21 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Patty Mills * | 20 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Aron Baynes | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 43 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 20 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 40 | 11-20 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 21 | - |
| Andre Miller * | 33 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Corey Brewer * | 33 | 12-25 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 9 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 24 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 20 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Evan Fournier * | 18 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| JaVale McGee * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | - |
| Anthony Randolph * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter