Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.3% | 12.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.1% | 18.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.2% | 18.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards -5 (98-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Lewis * | 36 | 5-14 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 33 | 8-18 | 1-7 | 6-7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 29 | 5-14 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 28 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 26 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 24 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5 | - |
| James Jones * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall * | 39 | 7-18 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 21 | - |
| AJ Price * | 31 | 8-12 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Garrett Temple * | 31 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Martell Webster * | 26 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 23 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Jan Vesely * | 21 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - |
| Emeka Okafor * | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Kevin Seraphin * | 19 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Chris Singleton * | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Cartier Martin | 15 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
* = starter