Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +18 (132-114). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Lin * | 34 | 8-15 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Francisco Garcia * | 28 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - |
| James Harden * | 28 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 10-10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Terrence Jones * | 28 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 26 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 21 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 15 | - |
| James Anderson * | 20 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 15 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Greg Smith * | 12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Thomas Robinson * | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Aaron Brooks | 9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 36 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 26 | - |
| Andre Miller * | 31 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 29 | 9-15 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Corey Brewer * | 28 | 7-16 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 24 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Evan Fournier * | 22 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Anthony Randolph * | 21 | 7-10 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| JaVale McGee * | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jordan Hamilton | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Quincy Miller | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter